AsiaFluCap Simulator 


The AsiaFluCap Simulator is an innovative and user-friendly tool for assessing health system capacity for responding to various pandemic influenza scenarios. Designed as a tool for evidence-based resource allocation, this unique simulator is able to estimate and display the availability, needs and gaps of 28 key health care resources (e.g. materials, equipment and personnel) for a selected pandemic scenario in a country, province or region. The AsiaFluCap Simulator was built in Microsoft Excel making the simulator easily accessible. The development of the tool was part of the international AsiaFluCap project.

System Requirements

  • Windows operating system (MS Windows 2000 or newer)* 
  • Microsoft Excel (MS Office 2000 or newer)*
  • 486 Pentium processor and at least 128MB RAM
  • 20 MB of hard drive storage space
*MS Windows and Office is a copyrighted product produced by Microsoft Corporation, WA. Use of trade names and commercial sources is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) or the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). 

Download files

 => The AsiaFluCap Simulator Beta Version 2 (UPDATED!)  (download)
      
       Most important changes in interface compared to                       
       Beta Version 1:
       - Choose between a mild, moderate and severe pandemic scenario.
       - Change the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) for each of the three   
         scenarios to study the effect on resource availability and for   
         performing sensitivity analysis.
       - Include contact reduction (in the community and/or hospitals).
       - Change the threshold value for the low and high pandemic activity    
         periods to account for changes in resource use during outbreaks.  

  • The AsiaFluCap Simulator Quick Start Guide (download)
  • List of Abbrevations Health Care Resources (download)

Instructions for downloading

After downloading the AsiaFluCap Simulator, you must change MS Excel's security level. Take the following steps:

 1. Open the AsiaFluCap Simulator
 2. Click Tools and then click Macro, choose Security
 3. Set Security Level to Medium or Low 
 4. Click OK.


When asked to Disable Macros or Enable Macros, click Enable Macros. It might be required to restart MS Excel. We recommend downloading the AsiaFluCap Simulator and saving the file to your computer and then open the file from your computer. This will allow the file to open in Excel instead of your web browser.

Please provide us with your contact details after downloading the AsiaFluCap Simulator. We will keep you updated about new versions and you can help us improve the simulator by giving us your feedback! 

Quick Start Guide Video 

Download the Quick Start Guide video:

How to create maps? 

The AsiaFluCap Simulator contains a function to export the simulation results to GIS software (see for instruction the Quick Start Guide). Creating maps requires downloading and installation of GIS software. It is possible to use Open Source GIS software, like MapWindow, to create maps of the simulation results.

  • Download freely available MapWindow GIS (click here)               
  • Shapefile for Thailand (download)

Instructions for creating maps*

1. Download shapefile Thailand (zip-file) on your computer and extract all three files to one folder.

2. Use the export function in the AsiaFluCap Simulator and replace the .dbf file in the folder that you created in step 1 (by searching the folder and double clicking on .dbf file).

3. Open the GIS software and add the shapefile.

*For detailed instructions we kindly refer you to the Quick Start Guide.                  Note: Not all GIS software operates with the .dbf file created by the simulator.

Contact

Any problems or questions regarding the use of the AsiaFluCap Simulator please contact Mart Stein at m.l.stein-2@umcutrecht.nl.The source code of the interface of the AsiaFluCap Simulator can be made available upon request.


What is AsiaFluCap Simulator designed for? 

The AsiaFluCap Simulator can be used for:

  • Assessing health care capacity during various pandemic scenarios (providing insight for  resource allocation)
  • Informing strategic and operational plans to improve pandemic preparedness and response
  • Training and exercises (e.g. for decision-making and ‘war room’situations)
There is also potential for further expansion of the simulator for other scenarios, diseases and resources.

Who is the AFC Simulator designed for? 

Policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders nvolved in pandemic preparedness and healthcare resource allocation at regional, national or local levels.  


Please be noted that...
For demonstration purposes, this beta version contains all provinces of Thailand, with fictitious data on resource availability. You can add other provinces or districts with data on resource availability by removing the provinces of Thailand in the ‘Input data avr’ tab in the Excel file. 
 
We emphasize that this AsiaFluCap Simulator cannot
  • predict when the next pandemic will arise
  • predict the outbreak progression of future pandemics 
  • predict the actual amount of resources needed during future pandemics
  • give age-sensitive results. 

The AsiaFluCap Simulator can

  • provide indications of the impact on public health and resource capacity
  • highlight possible resource gaps
  • prioritise resources which should be scaled-up
  • link resource gaps to their relative number of avoidable deaths.

Supporting materials

The AsiaFluCap Simulator has been described in BMC Public Health (2012). To reference the simulator, please use the following citation: 

Stein ML, Rudge JW, Coker R, Weijden C, Krumkamp R, Hanvoravongchai P, Chavez I, Putthasri W, Phommasack B, Adisasmito W, Touch S, Sat LM, Hsu YC, Kretzschmar M, Timen A. Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator. BMC Public Health, 2012 12(1):870 doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-870

  

Related articles and materials

Krumkamp R, Kretzschmar M, Rudge J W, Ahmad A, Hanvoravongchai P, Westenhoefer J, Stein M, Putthasri W, Coker R. Health service resource needs for pandemic influenza indeveloping countries: a linked transmission dynamics, interventions and resource demand modelEpidemiol. Infect., 2010, 1-9

Adisasmito W, Hunter BM, Krumkamp R, Latief K, Rudge JW, Hanvoravongchai P, Coker RJ: Pandemic Influenza and Health System Resource Gaps in Bali: An Analysis Through a Resource Transmission Dynamics Model. Asia Pac J Public Health 2011.

James W. Rudge, Piya Hanvoravongchai, Ralf Krumkamp, Irwin Chavez, Wiku Adisasmito, Pham Ngoc Chau, Bounlay Phommasak, Weerasak Putthasri, Chin-Shui Shih, Mart Stein, Aura Timen, Sok Touch, Ralf Reintjes, Richard Coker.Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories. PlosONE, 2012 7(2): e31800

Presentation AsiaFluCap Simulator, Pandemic Preparedness Conference, Bangkok 2011 (download 

Poster presentation AsiaFluCap Simulator, Pandemic Preparedness Conference, Bangkok 2011 (download)

The AsiaFluCap Simulator Infosheet (download

 

DISCLAIMER: The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) take no responsibility for, and will not be liable for, for any policy decisions that were based on results or (parameter) values originating from the AsiaFluCap Simulator. Through this website you are able to link to other websites which are not under the control of LSHTM or the RIVM. We have no control over the nature, content and availability of those sites or the software provided on those sites. The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.

Copyright © 2012 The AsiaFluCap Project. All Rights Reserved.